Search results for "Taylor rule"
showing 7 items of 7 documents
Stock market and exchange rate information in the Taylor rule : Evidence from OECD countries
2017
We analyze the effects of stock market and exchange rate information in a forward-looking Taylor rule for monthly data from 14 OECD countries during the years 1999–2016. Especially the stock market information in the form of dividend but also the currency market information in the form of real exchange rate are revealed to be relevant in Taylor rule for many of the countries examined by helping to strengthen the role of inflation and real economic activity deviations in the policy rule. In many cases the rule also seems to be opportunistic, i.e., the inflation target has been time-varying. peerReviewed
The New Consensus and Post-Keynesian Interest Rate Policy.
2007
Abstract This paper outlines the fundamental arguments of the New Consensus, critiques it from a Post-Keynesian perspective, and offers a Post-Keynesian alternative to the Taylor Rule. While Post-Keynesian economics provides a theory of endogenous money with exogenous interest rates, it has no clear description of a central bank reaction function. We attempt to remedy this oversight by identifying some of the difficulties attached to developing a Post-Keynesian reaction function, and suggesting an approach to the setting of interest rates that is more consistent than the Taylor Rule with Keynes's General Theory.
How does monetary policy respond to the dynamics of the shadow banking sector?
2020
We investigate the response of the central bank to the change in size of non-bank financial intermediaries. Using quarterly data for the U.S. over the period 1946:Q1-2016Q4, we find that when faced with an increase in the asset growth of the securities' brokers and dealers and the shadow banking sector, the monetary authority reacts by raising the short-term nominal interest rate. This response is stronger in the case of sharp variation in the size of the balance sheet of nonbank financial intermediaries. From a policy perspective, our study suggests that an extended version of the original Taylor rule - embedding both price stability and financial stability concerns – provides a good chara…
Some new results on interest rate rules in EMU and in the US
2000
Abstract This paper offers two new results on interest rate rules. First, we show that the empirical evidence from 1970 onwards for the US is compatible with a Taylor rule when we consider the possibility of changes in the inflation target and in the real interest rate. Second, recursive estimates of a forward-looking version of the Taylor rule for EMU confirm an increasing weight for inflation in the area, possibly as a consequence of the EMS, and, furthermore, a convergence in the nineties to the German value observed for the whole period. This process has coincided with an important reduction in the deviation of inflation across EMU countries. The results also show that credibility probl…
The Taylor Rule and the Practice of Central Banking
2010
The Taylor rule has revolutionized the way many policymakers at central banks think about monetary policy. It has framed policy actions as a systematic response to incoming information about economic conditions, as opposed to a period-by-period optimization problem. It has emphasized the importance of adjusting policy rates more than one-for-one in response to an increase in inflation. And, various versions of the Taylor rule have been incorporated into macroeconomic models that are used at central banks to understand and forecast the economy. ; This paper examines how the Taylor rule is used as an input in monetary policy deliberations and decision-making at central banks. The paper charac…
The Taylor Rule and the Practice of Central Banking
2010
The Taylor rule has revolutionized the way many policymakers at central banks think about monetary policy. It has framed policy actions as a systematic response to incoming information about economic conditions, as opposed to a period-by-period optimization problem. It has emphasized the importance of adjusting policy rates more than one-for-one in response to an increase in inflation. And, various versions of the Taylor rule have been incorporated into macroeconomic models that are used at central banks to understand and forecast the economy. This paper examines how the Taylor rule is used as an input in monetary policy deliberations and decision-making at central banks. The paper characte…
Monetary Policy Rules: From Adam Smith to John Taylor
2012
We describe, through the lenses of history, the intellectual origins of the Taylor rule. The Taylor rule was an important component of the transformation that swept through the monetary policy landascape in a remarkable few years following the abandonment of monetary targeting. In this long paper we provide an original overview of the long-dated debate on rules vs discretion in monetary policy, ever since Adam Smith and the monetary controversies of the XIX century. We then analyse in greater detail the debates in the interwar years (Wicksell, Keynes, Cassel, Simons, Fisher) and the debates in the 1950s and 1960s (Phillips, Friedman, the rational expectation hipothesis) and how these debate…